FPL Analysis: Over performance in xG and xA 24/25 Season
In football analytics, expected goals (xG) and expected assists (xA) are advanced stats that measure the quality of chances a player has to score or assist. Comparing a player’s actual goals and assists to their xG and xA reveals who exceeded expectations often indicating clinical finishing, creativity, or a bit of luck.
TL;DR from last season.
Mbeumo, Wood, Salah, and Isak all scored significantly more goals than their expected goals (xG), showing clinical finishing or hot streaks.
Salah also had a huge over performance in assists, with 9 more assists than his expected assists (xA), likely due to his creativity and Liverpool’s finishing.
These players outperformed their underlying stats last season, but such over performance is hard to repeat every year.
Over performance in Goals (Goals minus xG)
Players who have a positive value in "Goals minus xG" scored more goals than expected, based on the chances they had. This often reflects clinical finishing, intelligent positioning, or sometimes a bit of luck.
Top Overperformers in Goals:
Mbeumo (+7.48): Scored 20 goals with an xG of only 12.52. This is a substantial over performance.
Wood (+6.58): Scored 20 goals from an xG of 13.42.
Salah (+4.30): Scored 29 goals from an xG of 24.70, showing consistent clinical finishing at an elite level.
Isak (+2.67): Another strong finisher, with 23 goals from 20.33 xG.
Over performance in Assists (Assists minus xA)
A positive "Assists minus xA" means a player provided more assists than expected, either due to teammates finishing difficult chances, creative playmaking, or sometimes fortune.
Top Overperformers in Assists:
Salah (+9.01): 18 assists from just 8.99 xA—this is a massive overperformance and may reflect both his creativity and the finishing prowess of his teammates.
Wood (+1.41): 3 assists from 1.59 xA (modest but notable in context of his limited expected contribution).
Isak (+2.41): 6 assists from 3.59 xA.
While most players hover closer to parity, those with high positive values often combine strong vision, technical ability, and, occasionally, some luck (e.g., assists from shots parried by the goalkeeper, or teammates scoring from improbable angles).
What Does This Mean?
Repeatability: High over performance in one season is often difficult to repeat, especially for finishing (goals minus xG). Players like Salah have consistently outperformed xG year after year, hinting at elite skill, while others (e.g., Mbeumo, Wood) may regress toward the mean in future seasons.
Assists: Large positive "Assists minus xA" values can sometimes be less stable and dependent on the finishing ability of teammates.
Fantasy Implication: Players with a habit of outperforming their xG/xA are often high-upside picks, but be cautious of expecting over performance to persist for all.
